Dust trail of eta-Aquariids in 2017

I computed distributions for eta-Aquariids of dust trails from 1P/Halley by using the simplest dust trail model. As a result, I found out that some parts of a trail will approach the Earth on May 5 in 2017.
(April 26, 2017)

Observation (added on May 8)

Eta-Aquariids might "slightly" be active in 2017.
I recorded some meteors on photography and a video.

*Please play in HD quality.

Background

Eta-Aquariids (#31, ETA) is one of the established meteor showers whose origin is comet 1P/Halley.
In 2013, I announced the prediction of enhancement of this meteor shower because some dust trails would approach the Earth. In fact, ZHR increased to 2 or 3 times of the usual year.
However, the condition of this year is worse than that of 2013.

Distribution of the Dust trail in 2017

Data in 2017

Ejection year	Time		Sol. Long. (2000.0)	Distance (au)	Ejection velocity (m/s)	fM	Radiant		Vg (km/s)
Ejection year	Date	UT	Sol. Long. (2000.0)	Distance (au)	Ejection velocity (m/s)	fM	RA (deg.)	DEC (deg.)	Vg (km/s)
-615	May 05	05:20	44.678	+0.0018	-6.99	0.0058	337.23	-1.18	65.85
-615	May 05	05:53	44.700	+0.0021	-7.03	0.0093	337.24	-1.17	65.85
-615	May 05	05:55	44.702	+0.0020	-7.02	0.013	337.24	-1.17	65.85
-615	May 05	11:06	44.910	-0.0033	-7.20	0.038	337.39	-1.08	65.97
-615	May 05	12:24	44.963	-0.0050	-7.24	0.0073	337.43	-1.05	66.01
-615	May 05	14:49	45.060	-0.0036	-6.82	0.0065	337.49	-1.03	65.99

Distance < 0.005 au, and fM > 0.005.

Distributions of Dust trails

Situations

Expected peak time is around between 5h and 15h (UT) on May 5.
However, the condition of this year is worse than that of 2013 as follows.
- The value of fM is small.
- Distance is so far.
- Only single year trail (ejected in -615) approaches.
Therefore ZHR may not increase so much.
The peak may be not sharp and will be continuous.

Others

Mikhail Maslov also computed a similar result. He predicts that the peak will occur at from 23h on May 4 to 3h on May 5. It is slightly different from my prediction.
Link to IMO Forum
Link to eta-Aquariids 2017: prediction of activity (by Mikhail Maslov)

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